31 accounts entered the top 100 this month; 30 dropped out. When the S&P 500 rose, FinTwit hit 45%; when it fell, 34%, a gap that looks more like market beta than skill.
What moved this month
Ranked roster▲+31Pros vs. the crowd▼−8.0 pts
01The Box Score30-Day Window
FinTwit Edge (30d)
—
How far the typical call finished from the market. Below zero, it lagged.
Beat S&P 500
—
Share of calls that actually beat the index.
Coin-flip margin
-7.4 pts▲+0.1 pts
How much the median account tops a 50/50 guess.
Bullish skew
—
Nearly every call is a buy. The crowd rarely calls a top.
Ranked field
257▲+31
Accounts with enough of a record to grade.
Top decile50.1%
Median42.6%
Bottom decile33.3%
A “decile” is just a tenth of the field: the best tenth, the middle, and the worst.
Crossing the wire: the names the crowd talked about most, and how often calls on them landed.
Volume state
Where the tape got loud
Resolved 30d tape
Resolved calls
—
Calls with a 30-day outcome in this edition.
Ranked field
257
Accounts with enough history to grade.
Buy pressure
—
Share of calls that leaned bullish.
Peak crowd
NVDA
216 distinct callers
Most crowded tickers
NVDA
216 callers
MU
211 callers
GOOG
175 callers
SPCX
175 callers
03The CrowdConsensus → outcome
A call with a single account behind it wins 40% of the time, barely better than a coin toss. When 30+ separate accounts land on the same call inside a week, the win rate climbs to 30%. That cuts against the usual instinct to fade a crowded trade: when independent voices reach the same name and direction on their own, the agreement carries information, and here it is worth more than any single loud take.
The Agreement Curve
30d win % by conviction
Coin flip · 50%
40%
1 (solo) agreewin40.2%calls5,815med ret-0.8%
36%
2–3 agreewin35.6%calls5,959med ret-3.2%
37%
4–6 agreewin37.2%calls5,860med ret-3.2%
33%
7–15 agreewin33.4%calls10,083med ret-4.6%
38%
16–30 agreewin38.4%calls12,464med ret-2.2%
30%
30+ agreewin30.0%calls27,542med ret-4.0%
1 (solo)
2–3
4–6
7–15
16–30
30+
Win rate by number of agreeing accounts: 1 (solo) agree, 40.2% over 5815 calls; 2–3 agree, 35.6% over 5959 calls; 4–6 agree, 37.2% over 5860 calls; 7–15 agree, 33.4% over 10083 calls; 16–30 agree, 38.4% over 12464 calls; 30+ agree, 30.0% over 27542 calls.
Calls grouped by how many distinct tracked accounts made the same call (ticker + direction) in the same week. More agreement lines up with higher accuracy, not lower.
Crowded trades that paid
Each of these names drew twenty or more callers and still cleared a 60% win rate, the rare case where a crowded trade was also a correct one. When the consensus formed around these tickers, it formed for a reason, and the tape paid it out.
Cohort
n
Win %
Med. ret
MSFT
163
65.8%
+6.1%
NOW
101
64.4%
+7.4%
ETH
68
66.6%
+6.0%
ADBE
64
60.5%
+10.9%
CRWD
61
63.8%
+4.2%
Most-piled-into tickers (≥20 distinct callers, last 90d) whose 30d win rate cleared 60%. The 'n' column is distinct callers.
Crowded trades that didn't pay
The flip side: the names just as many people piled into, where the win rate came in below a coin flip. Heavy attention pulls in momentum-chasers and latecomers as readily as it marks a real edge, and on these tickers the crowd mistook noise for conviction.
Cohort
n
Win %
Med. ret
NVDA
216
41.3%
+0.8%
MU
211
22.8%
-8.5%
GOOG
175
26.6%
-0.8%
SPCX
175
33.3%
-16.1%
META
172
35.3%
-2.4%
Most-piled-into tickers (≥20 distinct callers, last 90d) whose 30d win rate came in below a coin flip (under 50%). The 'n' column is distinct callers. The resolved window (Mar-May 2026) spans an April drawdown.
04Pros vs JoesWhen the specialists fight the crowd
When a ticker’s specialists took the opposite side from the crowd, they were right more often, winning 116 of 163 weekly standoffs. A deep read on one name beat a broad take on all of them.
Pros
Score ≥ 70 on the ticker
116
standoffs won
♕
VS
Joes
The crowd · everyone else
47
standoffs won
PROS 71%
29% JOES
The specialists win 71% when they break from the crowd.▼−8.0 pts
verdict at 7 days · 163 standoffs
Standoffs by ticker
Ticker
Standoffs
Pros won
Joes won
ETH
8
6
2
TSLA
8
4
4
ORCL
5
3
2
BTC
4
4
0
AAPL
4
3
1
NIO
4
3
1
SPCX
4
3
1
XLK
4
2
2
ASTS
3
3
0
+ 87 more tickers
119
85
34
Total
163
116
47
A standoff is one week a ticker’s specialists (per-ticker score ≥ 70 that day) and the crowd took opposite sides; the winner is whichever side’s calls returned more over the next 7 days. These are aggregate figures, with no individual names. Newer standoffs land in the next edition as they resolve.
05The AnatomyWhere it works
A single headline win rate hides as much as it reveals. The same record looks very different once it is cut by how long a call is held, whether it is a buy or a sell, the size and sector of the company, and the size of the account making it. Slice it those ways and the real strengths start to separate from the blind spots.
By audience size
Mega · 500k+ accounts grade 44%; Small · <5k accounts, 38%. A bigger audience does not buy a better record. Reach rewards confidence and posting volume more than it rewards being right, so the loudest accounts are not reliably the sharpest. Follower count measures how many people are listening, and almost nothing about whether they should be.
Cohort
n
Win %
Mega · 500k+
16
44.0%
Large · 50–500k
107
43.7%
Mid · 5–50k
107
42.6%
Small · <5k
27
38.3%
Win % column here is each band's median caller accuracy.
By sector
Healthcare leads at 48%; Utilities trails at 22%. The crowd knows some terrain and guesses at the rest. Accuracy clusters in the sectors people actually live in, where the average poster has a feel for the products and the headlines. The harder corners reward specialist knowledge most of the field does not have, and the win rate shows it.
Win rate by sector, ranked: Healthcare, 47.6% over 6023 calls; Technology, 44.2% over 63156 calls; Financial Services, 41.9% over 7043 calls; Consumer Cyclical, 38.4% over 6708 calls; Energy, 34.4% over 1347 calls; Communication Services, 33.6% over 9345 calls; Industrials, 33.2% over 10221 calls; Consumer Defensive, 31.0% over 1061 calls; Basic Materials, 27.3% over 979 calls; Real Estate, 22.9% over 398 calls; Utilities, 22.4% over 814 calls.
Stock calls only; covers 100% of resolved stock-call volume (the major-cap names).
06The RegimeSkill vs. the tide
In the months the S&P 500 rose, FinTwit’s calls won 45% of the time. In the months it fell, 34%. A gap that wide says the tide is doing most of the lifting: when nearly every call is a buy, a rising market flatters the entire field and a falling one drags it down, no matter who made the call.
Riding the Tide
Win rate vs. market direction
Coin flip · 50%
45%
Market rosewin44.5%calls82,984med ret+0.1%
34%
Market fellwin34.3%calls46,953med ret-4.0%
Market rose
+0.1% med
Market fell
-4.0% med
Win rate by market regime: Market rose, 44.5% over 82984 calls; Market fell, 34.3% over 46953 calls.
30d call win-rate split by whether the S&P 500 rose or fell over the same holding window.
By volatility (beta), in each regime
High-beta names amplify whatever the market is already doing: thrilling on the way up, brutal on the way down. The same aggressive call can read as genius in a rally and recklessness in a sell-off, even when the underlying thesis never changed. Low-beta, defensive names move less either way, which is why they hold up when the tape turns.
Beta × Regime
High / mid / low, each way
Market roseMarket fellCoin flip · 50%
45%
High beta (≥1.5) · Market rosewin45.2%calls39,226med ret-0.5%
34%
High beta (≥1.5) · Market fellwin34.1%calls22,814med ret-7.1%
Win rate by beta tier and market regime: High beta (≥1.5) Market rose, 45.2% over 39226 calls; High beta (≥1.5) Market fell, 34.1% over 22814 calls; Mid (1.0–1.5) Market rose, 48.0% over 15195 calls; Mid (1.0–1.5) Market fell, 37.9% over 8910 calls; Low (<1.0) Market rose, 43.3% over 6883 calls; Low (<1.0) Market fell, 35.3% over 4212 calls.
High-beta/momentum names outperform when the market rises and crater when it falls; low-beta names hold up better in the sell-off. Covers 74.8% of resolved-call volume.
— of calls are buys; the crowd rarely calls a top.
Strength in numbers
At peak agreement, the win rate climbs to 30.0%.
Top sector
Healthcare leads every sector at 47.6%.
Ranked field
257 graded accounts this edition.
Cite this report
APA
SignalSnitch. (2026). The Accountability Desk: FinTwit vs. the Market (August 2026 edition). Retrieved from https://signalsnitch.io/state-of-fintwit/m/2026-08
Inline
Per SignalSnitch’s Accountability Desk (signalsnitch.io/state-of-fintwit/m/2026-08), median accuracy across 257 ranked finfluencers is 42.6%.
Free to republish with attribution under CC BY 4.0.
SignalSnitch grades the public market calls of social-media traders against actual price action and publishes the results as a leaderboard. The system is independent of brokerages and runs continuously; every figure on this page comes straight from the live dataset, with no hand-picking. Poise Through the Noise.
Aggregate figures only, across the ranked field. Educational, not investment advice. Frozen edition, computed from the live dataset at month close: August 2026.